Finantsvaade http://www.finantsvaade.ee www.finantsvaade.ee Fri, 05 Nov 2010 10:41:05 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 Nädala graafik: korrelatsioon finantsturgudel http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/nadala-graafik-korrelatsioon-finantsturgudel http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/nadala-graafik-korrelatsioon-finantsturgudel#comments Fri, 05 Nov 2010 10:39:03 +0000 Märten Kress http://www.finantsvaade.ee/?p=777 Seekordne nädala graafik kajastab USA aktsiaindeksi S&P 500 ja USA 10-aastase riigivõlakirja tootluse vahelist korrelatsiooni. Kui tavapäraselt liiguvad aktsiate hinnad riigivõlakirjade tootlusega samasuunaliselt, siis USA Föderaalreservi aktiivne sekkumine võlakirjaturule on viinud selle traditsioonilise korrelatiivse seose murdumiseni. Jätka lugemist ]]> Seekordne nädala graafik kajastab USA aktsiaindeksi S&P 500 ja USA 10-aastase riigivõlakirja tootluse vahelist korrelatsiooni. Kui tavapäraselt liiguvad aktsiate hinnad riigivõlakirjade tootlusega samasuunaliselt (võlakirjade hinnaga vastassuunaliselt), siis USA Föderaalreservi aktiivne sekkumine võlakirjaturule on viinud selle traditsioonilise korrelatiivse seose murdumiseni.

Aktsiahindade ja võlakirjatootluste vaheline korrelatsioon pöördus langusesse peale 27. augusti Fed’i juhi Ben Bernanke sõnavõttu, kus viimane vihjas täiendava võlakirjade ostuprogrammi võimalusele. Nüüdseks oleme pea terve kuu näinud aktsia- ja võlakirjahindade samasuunalisi liikumisi ning vähemalt mõnda aega on oodata selle jätkumist.

Niinimetatud tasakaalustatud investeerimisportfelli omanikele tähendab ülaltoodu seda, et hinnaliikumised aktsiates ja võlakirjades enam teineteist ei neutraliseeri ning portfelli riskitaset selline hajutamine ei vähenda. Seni kuni mõlema varaklassi hinnad tõusevad, on investorid kindlasti rahul, kuid pilt saab olema ebameeldivam kui aktsiahinnad pöörduvad langusele ja riigivõlakirjad sellises situatsioonis enam portfellile kaitset ei paku.

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Venemaa reservfond loobub investeerimisest Iirimaa ja Hispaania riigivõlakirjadesse http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/venemaa-reservfond-loobub-investeerimisest-iirimaa-ja-hispaania-volakirjadesse http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/venemaa-reservfond-loobub-investeerimisest-iirimaa-ja-hispaania-volakirjadesse#comments Thu, 04 Nov 2010 16:12:16 +0000 Märten Kress http://www.finantsvaade.ee/?p=751 "Vähendamaks Venemaa Reservfondi võimalikke riske investeerimistegevusest on fondil edaspidi lubatud investeerida järgnevate riikide võlakirjadesse: Austria, Belgia, Suurbritannia, Saksamaa, Kanada, Taani, Luksemburg, Holland, USA, Soome, Prantsusmaa, Rootsi", teatab Venemaa Rahandusministeeriumi kodulehel olev värske käskkiri. Nimekirjast on 26. oktoobri seisuga eemaldatud Iirimaa ja Hispaania riigivõlakirjad.

Jätka lugemist ]]>
“Vähendamaks Venemaa Reservfondi võimalikke riske investeerimistegevusest on fondil edaspidi lubatud investeerida järgnevate riikide võlakirjadesse: Austria, Belgia, Suurbritannia, Saksamaa, Kanada, Taani, Luksemburg, Holland, USA, Soome, Prantsusmaa, Rootsi”, teatab Venemaa Rahandusministeeriumi kodulehel olev värske käskkiri. Nimekirjast on 26. oktoobri seisuga eemaldatud Iirimaa ja Hispaania riigivõlakirjad. Seega üks oluline ostja taas vähem. Kas võime sarnaseid uudiseid oodata peagi ka teiste riikide reservfondidelt?

Alljärgnevalt on toodud käskkirja terviktekst Venemaa Rahandusministeeriumi kodulehelt:

 

Приказ Минфина России от 26 октября 2010 г. № 508

Министерство финансов Российской Федерации

Приказ

       26.10.2010                                                                                        № 508

О долговых обязательствах
иностранных государств,
в которые могут размещаться
средства Фонда национального благосостояния

В целях снижения рисков при управлении средствами Фонда национального благосостояния и в соответствии с пунктом 13 Требований к финансовым активам, в которые могут размещаться средства Фонда национального благосостояния, утвержденных постановлением Правительства Российской Федерации от 19 января 2008 г. № 18 «О порядке управления средствами Фонда национального благосостояния» (Собрание законодательства Российской Федерации, 2008, № 4, ст. 270; № 43, ст. 4945; 2009, № 30, ст. 3834; № 40, ст. 4701; 2010, № 15, ст. 1804; № 17, ст. 2108; № 31, ст. 4261; № 37, ст. 4673) приказываю:

1. Установить, что к долговым обязательствам иностранных государств, в которые могут размещаться средства Фонда национального благосостояния, относятся долговые обязательства в виде ценных бумаг правительств Австрии, Бельгии, Великобритании, Германии, Дании, Канады, Люксембурга, Нидерландов, США, Финляндии, Франции, Швеции.

2. Контроль за исполнением настоящего приказа оставляю за собой.

Заместитель Председателя Правительства
Российской Федерации –
Министр финансов Российской Федерации 
А.Л. Кудрин
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Kanada blokeerib välisinvesteeringu http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/kanada-blokeerib-valisinvesteeringu http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/kanada-blokeerib-valisinvesteeringu#comments Thu, 04 Nov 2010 11:12:28 +0000 Aari Stalde http://www.finantsvaade.ee/?p=739 Kui viimase aja esimese kategooria globaaluudiste kõrval on tänane uudis Kanada poliitilisest otsusest mitte lubada müüa oma maailma suurimat väetisetootjat PotashCorp´i välisinvestoritele ehk vähem tähtsam, siis oluliseks muutub see teade oma sisulises tähenduses. Alles teist korda alates 1985 aastast kasutas Kanada oma Investeerimisseadust, mille kohaselt peab iga välisinvesteeringust ülevõtmine tooma puhaskasu eelkõige Kanada riigile seoses uute töökohtadega, tootmisega, ekspordiga ja/või investeeringutega. Jätka lugemist ]]> Kui viimase aja esimese kategooria globaaluudiste kõrval on tänane uudis Kanada poliitilisest otsusest mitte lubada müüa oma maailma suurimat väetisetootjat PotashCorp´i välisinvestoritele ehk vähem tähtsam, siis oluliseks muutub see teade oma sisulises tähenduses. Alles teist korda alates 1985 aastast kasutas Kanada oma Investeerimisseadust, mille kohaselt peab iga välisinvesteeringust ülevõtmine tooma puhaskasu eelkõige Kanada riigile seoses uute töökohtadega, tootmisega, ekspordiga ja/või investeeringutega.

Miks siis üks riik nüüd arvab, et need kasutegurid ei ole selgi korral mängus? Jättes kõrvale kõik tehnilised detailid, võiksime astetada selle tehingu tänasesse globaalsesse tausta, kus maailmas on tekkinud kaks vastandlikku jõudu – ühed on riigid, kes oma meeletu laenukoormuse juures ei näe muud võimalust edasiseks tegutsemiseks kui pidevalt uut raha trükkida (Anglo-Ameerika) ja teised, kes püüavad endeid majandada olemasolevate ressursside (ka raha) piires. Selle kahe maailma vahel on aga tekkinud konfliktitsoon (valuutad, protektsionism), milles võitjaid raske ennustada. Valuutad ja protektsionism on tegelikult ühe mündi kaks eri poolt, mis käivad käsikäes. Me ei saa eeldada, et ajal kui valuutaturgudel käib tihe konkureeriv hindade kohandumine, on kaubad, tooted ja ressursid endiselt vabalt kaubeldavad. Miks? Sest keegi ei tea täpselt, mis on selle “paberi” tegelik väärtus, mida sulle pakkuma tullakse. Ehk siis lühidalt – mu meelest see on viimase aja esimene suur otsesel protektsionistlikul kaalutlusel ärajäänud tehing väikese märgilise tähendusega ja seda kõike FEDi eilse uudise taustal, kus raha saab veelgi juurde olema. Kas, kes, kui palju ja mida selle eest ka tulevikus osta saab, on aga juba teine teema.

Canada blocks BHP’s Potash bid, stuns investors


Thu, 4 Nov 2010 06:22:00 GMT

* Says no net benefit to Canada; leaves little room to revise
* Potash shares fall 5 pct in after-the-bell trade
* BHP shares rise 2.6 pct on buyback expectations
* Blow for BHP chief Kloppers; may now look at oil, gas
By Michael Smith and David Ljunggren

SYDNEY/OTTAWA, Nov 4 (Reuters) – Canada blocked BHP’s BHP.AX audacious $39 billion bid for Potash Corp POT.TO and left little room for a modified offer, throwing the spotlight on how the world’s largest miner can find new avenues for growth.
The government said the deal would not benefit the country, delivering a major blow to BHP Billiton Chief Executive Marius Kloppers after the 2008 failure of a $120 billion-plus takeover of rival Rio Tinto RIO.AX and the collapse of a $116 billion iron ore joint venture with Rio earlier this year.
BHP investors are betting the Anglo-Australian miner will now return capital through a share buyback or expand its interests in oil and gas in an effort to put its growing cash pile to work.
While Canada gave BHP 30 days to come up with additional proposals that might make its offer for the world’s largest fertiliser producer more palatable, the chances of a successful modified bid appeared remote.
“Marius Kloppers is going to be pretty frustrated. BHP is of a size now where just about anything it wants to do of any substance is going to get blocked on regulatory grounds,” said Cameron Peacock, market analyst at IG Markets in Melbourne.
BHP SHARES RISE
The decision was only the second time Canada has blocked a foreign takeover since 1985, sparking criticism the minority Conservative government was putting politics before business.
“Some decisions can only be taken once and there is no turning back ever — such as the case today,” Industry Minister Tony Clement said in ruling he was not satisfied about the net benefit to Canada.
Clement said he was unable to release the precise reasons for the decision, which came after strenuous objections from Potash Corp, its home province of Saskatchewan and customers of the crop nutrient essential for boosting crop production.
The decision surprised investors as well as BHP’s executives and advisers. Potash Corp shares were down some 5 percent in after-the-bell trade while BHP shares rose 2.6 percent to A$43.72, their highest close since April, on expectations BHP would consider returning capital to shareholders.
“BHP not spending all that money on Potash … will increase the probability of a capital return or share buyback, and people like that possibility,” said Tim Schroeders, a portfolio manager at Pengana Capital.
Potash Corp, which had unsuccessfully sought to attract a rival bid, repeated its view that BHP’s $130-a-share offer was “wholly inadequate”.
Analysts said Potash Corp shares were unlikely to tumble back to pre-offer levels around $112, given a rising market and strong fundamentals in the fertilizer market. Even without any bid at all, the firm’s shares are expected to rise in the medium term.
While investors expect BHP to look at a share buyback or a special dividend, analysts also said the miner could increase its exposure to oil and gas using an estimated $11 billion warchest.
Shares in Australian oil and gas firm Woodside Petroleum WPL.AX rose 1.8 percent on speculation it could now fall in BHP’s sights, while Oil Search OSH.AX rose 2.9 percent.
China, a major potash user worried about BHP’s influence over supply of another key commodity, welcomed the decision.
“The failure by BHP is good for China … If we can largely meet our demand with our own supply, the market may not be controlled by one company,” said a senior official at the potash branch of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association.
BHP launched its bid in August, seeking an entry into the lucrative potash market, 25 percent controlled by Potash Corp. But Potash Corp stock consistently traded above the offer price, indicating investors thought a higher offer would come.
NET BENEFIT TO CANADA
Under the Investment Canada Act, a foreign takeover must have a net benefit for the country in terms of jobs, exports, production and investment. The Canadian government had previously blocked a foreign takeover only once before.
But this decision had always been a thorny one for a minority government that needed to weigh political considerations against the desire to ensure Canada stayed open for business.
The Conservatives have most of the seats in Saskatchewan, the Prairie province where Potash Corp is based, and fervent Saskatchewan opposition to the bid meant they risked losing those seats in an election likely to take place next year.
Saskatchewan argued it would lose tax and royalty revenues if the deal went through. It said it would be wrong to let a resource as strategic as potash fall into foreign hands.
“I think it comes as a shock to the market,” said John Stephenson, senior vice president at First Asset Investment Management Inc.
“I think it goes in the face … of the direction of the government of Canada for the last number of years, which is we’re open for business. Clearly, we’re sending a signal that no, we’re not.” (Additional reporting by Louise Egan in Ottawa; Sonali Paul in Melbourne and Niu Shuping in Beijing; Editing by Mark Bendeich and Lincoln Feast)
((michael.jsmith@thomsonreuters.com; +61 2 9373 1812;
Reuters Messaging: michael.jsmith.reuters.com@reuters.net))

]]> http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/kanada-blokeerib-valisinvesteeringu/feed 0 Fed’i istungi tulemused: järgmised 600 miljardit dollarit http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/fedi-istungi-tulemused-jargmised-600-miljardit-dollarit http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/fedi-istungi-tulemused-jargmised-600-miljardit-dollarit#comments Thu, 04 Nov 2010 07:14:01 +0000 Märten Kress http://www.finantsvaade.ee/?p=707 USA Föderaalreservi istungil otsustasid keskpankurid suurendada väärtpaberite kokkuostuprogrammi 600 miljardi dollari võrra. Programmi suurendamise ja jätkamise eesmärk on Fed'i sõnul edendada majanduskasvu ja kindlustada inflatsiooni tõus pikemas perspektiivis nn. tasakaalumäärani. 600 miljardit dollarit suunatakse seekord peamiselt pikema tähtajaga USA valitsuse võlakirjade ostuks ja jaguneb võrdselt (75 miljardit dollarit kuus) järgneva 8 kuu peale. Jätka lugemist ]]> USA Föderaalreservi istungil otsustasid keskpankurid suurendada väärtpaberite kokkuostuprogrammi 600 miljardi dollari võrra. Programmi suurendamise ja jätkamise eesmärk on Fed’i sõnul edendada majanduskasvu ja kindlustada inflatsiooni tõus pikemas perspektiivis nn. tasakaalumäärani. 600 miljardit dollarit suunatakse seekord peamiselt pikema tähtajaga USA valitsuse võlakirjade ostuks ja jaguneb võrdselt (75 miljardit dollarit kuus) järgneva 8 kuu peale.

Samuti jätkab Fed juba väljakujunenud viisil olemasolevate võlakirjade tähtaja saabumisel sealt laekuvate summade paigutamist USA riigivõlakirjadesse. Järgmise 8 kuu jooksul paigutatakse riigivõlakirjadesse selliselt ligikaudu 250-300 miljardit dollarit, prognoosib Fed.

Oluline muutus võrreldes seni kehtinud kokkuostuprogrammiga on keskendumine suuremas ulatuses pikema tähtajaga võlakirjadele.

Samuti kaotab Fed seni kehtinud piirangu maksimaalselt omada kuni 35% ühest riigivõlakirjade emissioonist.

Kõige enam lahknes ootustest Fed’i otsus jaotada suhteliselt tagasihoidlik summa ülipikkade (30-aastaste) riigivõlakirjade ostuks. Otsuse järgselt langesid 30-aastaste USA riigivõlakirjade hinnad ca 2,3%, kuid siis mõnevõrra taastusid ja lõpetasid päeva 8 baaspunkti kõrgemal (0,6% hinnalangusega).

Uut väärtpaberite kokkuostuprogrammi kirjeldav Fed’i täistekst on kättesaadav Föderaalreservi kodulehel. ]]> http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/fedi-istungi-tulemused-jargmised-600-miljardit-dollarit/feed 0 Video: valmistudes Föderaalreservi istungiks http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/video-valmistudes-foderaalreservi-istungiks http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/video-valmistudes-foderaalreservi-istungiks#comments Wed, 03 Nov 2010 11:29:43 +0000 Märten Kress http://www.finantsvaade.ee/?p=578 Barry White'i stiilis ballad keskpanga poliitikast ja lõdvast rahapoliitikast. Jätka lugemist ]]>

Barry White’i stiilis ballad keskpanga poliitikast ja lõdvast rahapoliitikast.

Via Greg Mankiw’s blog ]]> http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/video-valmistudes-foderaalreservi-istungiks/feed 0 Finantsturgude ootused Föderaalreservi istungi eel http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/finantsturgude-ootused-foderaalreservi-istungi-eel http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/finantsturgude-ootused-foderaalreservi-istungi-eel#comments Tue, 02 Nov 2010 08:24:14 +0000 Märten Kress http://www.finantsvaade.ee/?p=656 Täna ja homme toimub järjekordne USA Föderaalreservi istung. Turuosalised ootavad Bloomberg News'i andmetel ligikaudu 500 miljardi dollari suuruse kvantitatiivse lõdvendamise (QE) paketi väljakuulutamist. Eelmisel nädalal viis oma klientide hulgas sarnase küsitluse läbi ka Citigroup. Kui kolm nädalat tagasi oli Citi klientide ootus kokkuostuprogrammi mediaansuuruse osas 575 miljardit dollarit, siis viimase küsitluse kohaselt oodatakse programmi maht langevat vahemikku 250-500 miljradit dollarit. Jätka lugemist ]]>

Täna ja homme toimub järjekordne USA Föderaalreservi istung. Turuosalised ootavad Bloomberg News’i andmetel ligikaudu 500 miljardi dollari suuruse kvantitatiivse lõdvendamise (QE) paketi väljakuulutamist. Täiendava väärtpaberite kokkuostuprogrammi ellukutsumist Föderaalreservi poolt ennustavad Bloombergi poolt küsitletud 56-st ökonomistist 53. 

Policy makers meeting today and tomorrow will restart a program of securities purchases to spur growth, reduce unemployment and increase inflation, said 53 of 56 economists surveyed last week. Twenty-nine estimated the Fed will pledge to buy $500 billion or more, while another seven predicted $50 billion to $100 billion in monthly purchases without a specified total. The remainder said the Fed would buy up to $500 billion or didn’t quantify their forecast.
The varied responses reflect differences among Fed officials over the total amount of purchases needed to bolster the recovery. Policy makers, pursuing unprecedented stimulus, have cut the benchmark rate almost to zero and bought $1.7 trillion in securities without generating growth fast enough to bring down unemployment from near a 26-year high.

Eelmisel nädalal viis oma klientide hulgas sarnase küsitluse läbi ka Citigroup. Kui kolm nädalat tagasi oli Citi klientide ootus kokkuostuprogrammi mediaansuuruse osas 575 miljardit dollarit, siis viimase küsitluse kohaselt oodatakse programmi maht langevat vahemikku 250-500 miljardit dollarit

The poll was conducted by our Rate Sales team from Wednesday afternoon until Friday afternoon. There were 93 responses from a cross section of global accounts.
To summarize, when we first conducted this survey 3 weeks ago the median response was an expectation of $575BN of QE to be announced in November. This latest survey saw expectations decline to between $250‐ $500BN, which appears to be reflected in the move we have seen in the 10 year over the past 3 weeks. Additionally, nearly 50% of respondents are going into the FOMC meeting long duration with 95% expecting some announcement of QE on Wednesday. 46% think that yield targeting is somewhat likely and 53% expect that an explicit inflation target is somewhat likely.

 

 

Lisaks USA Föderaalreservi istungile on sellel nädalal toimumas ka Ühendkuningriikide Keskpanga ja Euroopa Keskpanga istungid. Erinevalt USA Föderaalreservist ei oota turuosalised Inglismaa ja Euroopa Keskpankade poolset väärtpaberite kokkuostuprogrammide suurendamist. Juhul kui tõesti nii läheb, lahknevad kolme riigi rahapoliitikad juba oluliselt. Alljärgnev graafik kajastab nimetatud riikide keskpankadepoolseid väärtpaberite kokkuostu suhtena riigi sisemajanduse koguprodukti.

Allikas: News N Economics ]]> http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/finantsturgude-ootused-foderaalreservi-istungi-eel/feed 0 Majandusprofessor hoiatab: Iirimaa IMF-i uksele koputamas http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/majandusprofessor-hoiatab-imf-iirimaa-uksele-koputamas http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/majandusprofessor-hoiatab-imf-iirimaa-uksele-koputamas#comments Mon, 01 Nov 2010 12:54:14 +0000 Märten Kress http://www.finantsvaade.ee/?p=601 Riigivõlakirjade turu tänane suurim liikuja on Iirimaa. Nädalavahetusel Iiri päevalehes "Independent" ilmunud majandusprofessori Colm McCarthy sõnul on Rahvusvaheline Valuutafond (IMF) juba sama hästi kui Iirimaa ukse taga. McCarthy hoiatab, et kui vajalikke eelarvekärpeid lähiajal ellu viia ei suudeta, on hiljemalt järgmise aasta veebruariks Iirimaa majanduse ohjad IMF'i kätes. Jätka lugemist ]]> Riigivõlakirjade turu tänane suurim liikuja on Iirimaa. Nädalavahetusel Iiri päevalehes “Independent” ilmunud majandusprofessori Colm McCarthy sõnul on Rahvusvaheline Valuutafond (IMF) juba sama hästi kui Iirimaa ukse taga. McCarthy hoiatab, et kui vajalikke eelarvekärpeid lähiajal ellu viia ei suudeta, on hiljemalt järgmise aasta veebruariks Iirimaa majanduse ohjad IMF’i kätes. Iirimaa eelarveprobleemid olid võlakirjaturu fookuses ka oktoobris, alates oktoobri keskpaigast on Iirimaa 10-aastaste riigivõlakirjade hinnad langenud ligikaudu 8%.

Ireland’s scary scenario

Posted by Neil Hume on Nov 01 11:00.

Presenting the Irish/German 10-year government bond spread…

… which has widened more than other peripheral spreads this Monday morning.

Traders are pinning the move on comments made by University Colleage Dublin’s influential economist Colm McCarthy over the weekend. In an article for the Irish Independent he outlined a scary (and probably realistic) scenario under which the Irish government is unable to fund itself and has to call in the IMF.

Now, McCarthy is not a completely objective observer. As the Indy notes, the economist wrote a report for the government that recommended budget cuts to generate cost savings of up to €5.3bn. His recommendations were largely ignored.

Even so, his comments are certainly sobering and likely to be taken seriously:

In what he calls a “scary scenario”, outlined in the Sunday Independent today, Mr McCarthy says “the game is up” if the Government flunks the Budget on December 7.

The sense of impending doom is also evident in the latest Sunday Independent/Quantum Research poll, which found that a massive 64 per cent believe it to be “inevitable” that Ireland will need the help of the IMF in the new year.

Mr McCarthy has said that if the Budget does “too little” to convince the financial markets, the Government will be unable to finance itself — “which means an IMF/European bail-out and economic policy dictated from outside the country for the first time since the State was founded”.

He warns that the country’s cash reserves will run low by next spring, unless Ireland re-enters the bond market with a “pretty big issue” of up to €5bn.

“Realistically, the Government needs to do this in January or February at the latest,” he says.


For now, the Irish government seems confident it will get the budget through, according to the Indy:

Government sources were yesterday confident that the Budget would be passed on December 7 and that there would be no defections from Fianna Fail, the Greens or by independent TDs who support the Government.

But McCarthy warns there really is no alternative to a tough budget:

“Those who object to a tough Budget on the grounds that it will weaken an already weak economy are whistling in the wind unless they can identify a less deflationary option. “It is not that we are living beyond our means: we are living beyond the willingness of lenders to lend,” he said.

Related link:
Eek, Ireland! – FT Alphaville
So why is Ireland taking a break from selling bonds? – FT Alphaville

Ireland’s scary scenario

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Wall Street’i kuus hirmustsenaariumit http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/wall-streeti-6-hirmustsenaariumit http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/wall-streeti-6-hirmustsenaariumit#comments Mon, 01 Nov 2010 08:21:29 +0000 Märten Kress http://www.finantsvaade.ee/?p=526 Sel nädalavahetusel peetud Halloween'i-pidustuste valguses küsis CBS MoneyWatch kuuelt investeerimisprofessionaalilt, mis võiksid olla täna aktuaalsed finantsturgude ja majanduse hirmustsenaariumid. Nimetati võimalikku globaalset kaubandussõda, kontrolli alt väljuda võivat inflatsiooni, toorainete järsku hinnatõusu, uute hinnamullide teket ja lõhkemist, inflatsiooni eksportimist Hiina poolt ja uut Wall Street'i paanikat. Jätka lugemist ]]> Sel nädalavahetusel peetud Halloween’i-pidustuste valguses küsis CBS MoneyWatch kuuelt investeerimisprofessionaalilt, mis võiksid olla täna aktuaalsed finantsturgude ja majanduse hirmustsenaariumid. Nimetati võimalikku globaalset kaubandussõda, kontrolli alt väljuda võivat inflatsiooni, toorainete järsku hinnatõusu, uute hinnamullide teket ja lõhkemist, inflatsiooni eksportimist Hiina poolt ja uut Wall Street’i paanikat.

6 Nightmares for Wall Street

by Conrad de Aenlle | Oct 28, 2010 |

What’s the most terrifying thing that could happen? That seems like just the right question to ask with Halloween around the corner, jobs, housing and economic growth shaky, and stock and bond markets making record-setting runs, despite all the uncertainty.

We asked six veteran investment advisors to share their nightmare, worst-case scenarios for the economy and markets. The nightmare had to be plausible, if not probable. Our prognosticators had no trouble envisioning all manner of dreadful developments, from protectionism to rampant inflation to even a bubble of bubbles. Read on at your own risk.

1. A Protectionist Trade War
  • Governments around the world succumb to political pressure to protect their workers, tanking the global economy.

Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist for Citigroup: “One nightmare scenario that I would focus on is a significant bout of protectionism. With political pressures growing in democratic states — unemployment is 20 percent in places like Spain, not just 9.6 percent [as in the United States] — I could see politicians pointing fingers away from themselves by saying, ‘To fix our employment woes, we’ll make sure we produce goods here and not by people who produce under-priced goods somewhere else.’

“The world has benefited from globalization. It has given us cheaper goods to buy so, net-net, it’s good — unless you’re the one who suffers [a job loss]. Protectionism can cause inflation, a drop-off in business activity, you lose productivity. And it doesn’t have to start in the U.S. It can start somewhere else. I can see this thing unraveling. So far the U.S. administration has been extremely responsible, but you’re asking for nightmare scenarios. This one has a specter of realism to it.”

2. Out-of-Control Inflation
  • Trying to stimulate the economy, the Fed creates an inflation monster it can’t control.

Thomas Atteberry, a partner at First Pacific Advisors: “This is one of those frightening ones – the Fed does QE2 [the Federal Reserve program to stimulate economic growth by buying massive amounts of Treasury bonds], pumps lots of money into the system to take inflation from 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent, and it ends up unleashing something that it can’t control. You have central bankers who start tweaking the economy and then they can’t stop it. What if that runs rapidly into an inflationary spiral instead of deflation and they lose control of the currency? Then you can watch the fiat currency system spinning out of control.

“You’re not getting much growth [in such a scenario] because the economy is levered. There’s much more floating-rate debt or short-term debt. You’re crushing the middle class because their borrowing costs are up. You can’t raise rates, the tool to control inflation, because when you do, all of the levered people out there can’t service the debt. A lot of people bought bond mutual funds in the last year and a half. You can’t raise rates on them, either, because you’d crush them. There aren’t a lot of winners in that [QE2] endeavor.”

3. Commodity Prices Zoom
  • As emerging markets get richer and developed countries fall deeper into debt and print money, commodity prices skyrocket.

Komal Sri-Kumar, chief global strategist at TCW Group: “ In the past it was the deficit countries, mostly in emerging markets, that were in difficulty and Western countries would come to their help. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank were there to provide discipline to emerging markets. The nightmare scenario occurs when we don’t have them to deal with. With the U.S. and Europe having difficulty and China, India and Brazil doing well in financial terms, we don’t have a corrective mechanism. We’re in an uncharted world in terms of how to bring about stabilization. We can’t tell China what to do. No one has ever told a surplus country what to do. You can’t tell a deficit country what to do, either, because they can print more money.

“Brazil and India have a flood of money coming in. They have begun to impose restrictions on capital inflows because the money goes flooding into real estate and stocks. They know from experience that this will always be followed by a crash later on. What you may eventually find is that the U.S. keeps creating money, with foreign countries blocking flows. Where does that cash end up? It boosts prices of commodities and gold. Eventually food costs start to rise and the U.S. and other countries don’t get the benefit they’re looking for. As long as monetary policy is supportive and interest rates stay low, [asset] prices will go up and up and up. Then something comes along to point out that this can’t be sustained and it comes crashing down.”

4. More Bubbles and Busts
  • The U.S. prints more greenbacks and global markets gobble them up, fueling a bubble that eventually crashes hard.

Brett Hammond, chief investment strategist at TIAA-CREF: “Asset bubbles have been more extreme in the last 10 years than any other time in the last 80 years. We may be in a period where asset bubbles [are more common]. One scenario here is that we step right into a huge bubble that then bursts – I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but it could – but it’s much more fundamental than that. Things have happened in the last decade or two that have brought these conditions about. There’s a huge pool of global capital ready to pounce on the next hot thing; transmission mechanisms – huge global banks and technology – facilitate flows to the hot place; there are new, lightly regulated derivative instruments. If there weren’t this huge pool of capital, QE2 might not lead to a big bubble. You could argue that conditions are there not just for QE2 to do something but for potential bubbles in general to pop up, where true value gets out of whack and momentum takes over. Treasury bonds or emerging markets or some hot sector are things that could be faddish.”

5. China Exports Inflation
  • China exports a new product — inflation — and U.S. workers see prices shoot up while their wages stay flat.

Tom Forester, manager of the Forester Value Fund: “What if there’s inflation in China? They already have thin margins, so they start raising prices on everything they sell us. Every product that’s made has some input from China nowadays – computers, auto parts, sweaters, iPads, you name it. We see prices going up here and then interest rates get raised and so mortgage rates go up. The nightmare scenario is that your income is flat and inflation starts going up. That’s stagflation. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but it’s not on anyone’s radar now.” [Editor’s note: Forester’s fund was the only U.S. stock fund to have a positive return in 2008]

6. Wall Street Panic Attack
  • In an uncertain economy, one more scary event could undermine confidence, sparking panic from Wall Street to Main Street.

John Buckingham, chief investment officer at Al Frank Asset Management: “It takes a lot to keep the economy and business down. Despite consumer and investor confidence already standing on shaky ground, the wheels of commerce are still turning and corporate profits are again pushing up against record levels. I suppose that a nightmare scenario would have to do with the mucking up of the business engine. We caught a glimpse of this with the runs on banks and the near-collapse of money-market funds at the height of the financial meltdown. So much is predicated on being able to trust the counterparty in any transaction — financial or business — and an event that would lead to a wholesale loss of that trust would truly be cataclysmic.

“There is obviously a delicate balance. . . . Another flash crash that kills investor psyches or the collapse of a major financial institution like Bank of America would be devastating. No doubt, the loss of animal spirits would reap a huge toll on Main Street, as the unemployment rate would spike, further putting pressure on consumer spending, further hurting businesses, leading to more layoffs. I’d imagine that inflation would become a huge problem as well, as the Fed would have to inject mountains of additional cash.”

6 Nightmares for Wall Street (CBS MoneyWatch)

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Võlakirjainvestorid kahtlevad Euroopa ääreala riikide maksejõulisuses http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/volakirjainvestorid-kahtlevad-euroopa-aareala-riikide-maksejoulisuses http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/volakirjainvestorid-kahtlevad-euroopa-aareala-riikide-maksejoulisuses#comments Fri, 29 Oct 2010 11:42:51 +0000 Märten Kress http://www.finantsvaade.ee/?p=488 Kuigi Euroopa Liidu liidrid on kinnitanud, et eurotsooni valitsuste võlakirjad makstakse tagasi tähtaegselt ja täies ulatuses, ei usu suuremad võlakirjainvestorid neid sõnu. Eelmisel nädalal Barclays Capitali poolt avaldatud investoruuringu tulemuste kohaselt ootavad 82% küsitletud 582 investeerimisega tegelevast ettevõttest riigivõla restruktureerimist, maksejõuetust või täieulatuslikku eurotsooni võlakriisi. Jätka lugemist ]]> Kuigi Euroopa Liidu liidrid on kinnitanud, et eurotsooni valitsuste võlakirjad makstakse tagasi tähtaegselt ja täies ulatuses, ei usu suuremad võlakirjainvestorid neid sõnu (Saksamaa eestvedamisel on alles tänaseks jõutud Euroopa Liidu heakskiiduni muuta EU lepinguid ja luua 2013. aastaks alaline võlakriisi mehhanism, vaata EU Bows to German Call for Permanent Debt Mechanism). Eelmisel nädalal Barclays Capitali poolt avaldatud investoruuringu tulemuste kohaselt ootavad 82% küsitletud 582 investeerimisega tegelevast ettevõttest riigivõla restruktureerimist, maksejõuetust või täieulatuslikku eurotsooni võlakriisi. Riigivõlakirjadesse investeeritakse peamiselt nelja tegurit silmas pidades: stabiilsus, võlakirjahindade negatiivne seos aktsiahindadega, võimalus ajatada tuleviku maksekohustustega seotud rahvooge ja stabiilse tulu genereerimine. Investorite sõnutsi Euroopa äärealade (Kreeka, Portugal, Iirimaa, Hispaania) riigivõlakirjad enam eelnimetatud eesmärke täita ei suuda. Praeguste hinnatasemete juures pakuvad Euroopa äärealade võlakirjad küll kõrgemat oodatavat tootlust võrreldes tuumikriikide võlakirjadega, kuid arvestades reaalset võlakohustuste restruktureerimise võimalust, on ennatlik nimetada seda tulu stabiilseks.

Investors in Riskier Bonds May Not be Coming Back

Governments on the edges of the euro zone face a serious new challenge: the prospect that investors who have shunned their bonds in recent months may abandon them for good.

While European leaders continue to say that all euro-zone government debts will be paid in full and on time, most big investors don’t believe them. A survey of 582 investment institutions, carried out by Barclays Capital and released last week, showed 82% of them expected either debt restructuring, default or a full-fledged euro-zone crisis.

But the shift out of government bonds of Greece, Portugal, Ireland and even Spain is not just to do with the fear that investors will not be repaid in full and on time. It has also happened because the violent price shifts that have taken place over the last year mean that their bonds have lost many of the characteristics that most big bond buyers are seeking. “I think the biggest structural shift has been in market volatility,” says Arif Husain, director of U.K. and European fixed income at AllianceBernstein, the asset-management firm.

He says investors usually buy bonds for one of four reasons:

Stability.
Many conservative investors are seeking security for their capital. After assuming for much of the last decade that they were buying safety in places like Greece—to the point where yields on Greek bonds fell almost to the levels of those on German bonds—they now discover it was an illusion.

Justin Knight, European rates strategist at UBS in London, says a host of investors—including U.S. bond funds with retail clients and non-European central banks, particularly in Asia—invested in such “peripheral” markets to secure higher yields, thinking at the same time they had secured low-risk and low-volatility. Now, they’ve been disabused, and have pulled out “not because they think governments on the periphery are going to default but because they shouldn’t have been there in the first place,” he says.

They are seeking assets that move in the opposite direction to stocks.

This so-called negative correlation protects the value of their portfolio if prices of one asset class declines. Yet since the onset of the Greek crisis, at least until quite recently, prices of peripheral euro-zone debt have moved in tandem with risky assets such as shares, an undesirable positive correlation..

Liability management.

Investors such as pension funds want to align their assets to their liabilities, so that their investments mature at the same time as future payouts to pensioners. Dutch pension funds, for example, thought they could match their liabilities with assets such as Spanish bonds. Now, the possibility of default has made them think again.

Income generation.

Here the bonds from the periphery still do the job, now providing a bigger yield pick-up over German bonds than they did before, largely because the risks are perceived to be much higher.

The importance of investors in the fourth category is overwhelmed by those in the first three, and experts say their retreat is not a short-term phenomenon. “Bond markets have long memories,” Mr. Husain says.

Mr. Knight notes another shift among a minority of investors: the changing of benchmarks to exclude all but the euro zone’s core countries. These funds weight their purchases of bonds according to bond indexes, and have been underweight for some time in the peripheral markets. Now they want to formalize that shift, because they don’t see a prospect of those markets providing low credit risk and low volatility.

“We have several accounts that are changing their benchmarks. That’s a big deal. You have to explain to your clients what you are doing and why you are doing it. It’s not something that you do lightly and you don’t do it often so they won’t be changing back any time soon,” he says.

These factors suggest long-term shifts in investor appetites that will radically shrink the universe of buyers for bonds from the euro zone’s periphery for the foreseeable future.

Supply, meanwhile, is coming at full tilt.

Although governments are making stringent efforts to cut budget deficits, they won’t be able to do that quickly enough to scale back soon the flood of issues needed to cover the deficits and repay maturing debt. For a year or two, gross bond issuance will be running at two, three or four times the levels of the pre-crisis years, Mr. Knight says—even as demand has shrunk.

Selling these bonds will be a challenge. As politicians discuss ways to prevent the next crisis at the European Union summit continuing Friday in Brussels, this dynamic in the bond markets suggests they shouldn’t be too confident about having surmounted the current one.

Write to Stephen Fidler at stephen.fidler@wsj.com

Investors in Riskier Bonds May Not be Coming Back ]]> http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/volakirjainvestorid-kahtlevad-euroopa-aareala-riikide-maksejoulisuses/feed 0 Saksamaa jaemüük languses. Kas kasv ja taastumine hajumas? http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/saksamaa-jaemuuk-languses-kas-kasv-ja-taastumine-hajumas http://www.finantsvaade.ee/uudised/saksamaa-jaemuuk-languses-kas-kasv-ja-taastumine-hajumas#comments Fri, 29 Oct 2010 11:14:06 +0000 Aari Stalde http://www.finantsvaade.ee/?p=483 Saksamaa majanduse jaemüüginumbrid osutusid septembris oodatuist nõrgemaks, olles vastuolus viimase aja andmetega, mis eelnevalt "maalis" roosilisema pildi tarbijanõudlusest Euroopa suurimas majanduses. Esitatud kuupõhised nõrgad tulemused on seda üllatavamad hiljutiste tarbijauuringute taustal, kus tarbijate moraaliindeksid seisavad endiselt selle kõrgeimatel tasemetel alates 2008. aasta maist. Aga eks taju ja tegelikkus on harva samaväärsed nähtused. Jätka lugemist ]]> Saksamaa majanduse jaemüüginumbrid osutusid septembris oodatuist nõrgemaks, olles vastuolus viimase aja andmetega, mis eelnevalt “maalis” roosilisema pildi tarbijanõudlusest Euroopa suurimas majanduses. Esitatud kuupõhised nõrgad tulemused on seda üllatavamad hiljutiste tarbijauuringute taustal, kus tarbijate moraaliindeksid seisavad endiselt selle kõrgeimatel tasemetel alates 2008. aasta maist. Aga eks taju ja tegelikkus on harva samaväärsed nähtused.

German retail sales dip, take edge off growth story

By Brian Rohan Fri, 29 Oct 2010 08:46:00 GMT

* Biggest monthly sales drop in real terms since March 2008
* August real monthly sales figures revised down
* Yr through Sept shows real +1.1 pct y/y rise, +2.1 nominal
* Data clouds German consumer demand picture

BERLIN, Oct 29 (Reuters) – German retail sales posted their biggest monthly drop in 2-1/2 years in September, clashing with recent figures that had painted a rosier picture of consumer demand in Europe’s largest economy.
Sales fell by 2.3 percent in real terms, preliminary figures from the Statistics Office showed on Friday — a second monthly drop that clouded a longer view showing sales rose 1.1 percent in the year to date compared with the same period in 2009.
“This is a very weak result. It dampens the expectations that private consumption is taking off like a rocket,” said Ralph Solveen from Commerzbank. “However, one should not forget that retail sales data often fluctuate heavily and are revised frequently.”
Revisions were indeed the case for the August figures, which were pared down to a 0.4 percent monthly fall from an initial 0.2 percent.
The data was at variance with recent upbeat indicators that have buttressed hopes Germany’s stronger than expected rebound from recession will persist despite the uncertain impact of a fragile global outlook on its traditionally dominant export industries.
A survey by market research group GfK on Tuesday showed consumer morale remains at its highest level since May 2008 going into November on expectations of a continuing recovery, bolstering hopes that improved domestic demand will take up much of the slack if export growth runs out of steam.
Economic sentiment in the wider euro zone also remained buoyant this month, improving against market expectations for a flat reading, European Commission data showed on Thursday.
Among German businesses, sentiment hit its highest level in 3-1/2 years in October and firms’ expectations also improved, a survey showed last week, while the corporate outlook remained bright.
German sporting goods company PUMA, PUMG.DE for example on Tuesday hiked its sales outlook and posted bumper profits, following in the footsteps of rivals Adidas ADSGn.DE and Nike NKE.N to benefit from a global economic recovery.
PAINFUL REMINDER
Economists are watching retail sales and other consumer data closely for evidence of a pick-up in spending, which policymakers hope will lend increasing support to the economy this year and next and partly compensate for easing export growth.
Consumer spending increases, combined with surging exports, powered the German economy to growth of 2.2 percent in the April-June quarter, and so far economists see private consumption rising by around 1 percent next year.
But that outlook could brighten given an increasingly sturdy jobs market, which passed a milestone in October by falling below 3 million in unadjusted terms, hitting its lowest level in 18 years in a development that seems likely to reassure consumers.
Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle has said domestic demand would make up three quarters of growth next year, but that would require the sustained gains in retail sales that economists now see as being in doubt.
“Today’s numbers are a painful reminder that another strong growth performance in the third quarter is on a razor’s edge,” said Carsten Brzeski from ING Financial Markets.
Adding to the mixed picture, another report released by the statistics office on Friday showed Germans were kept their purse strings closed slightly tighter in the first half of this year.
Germans saved 11.5 percent of their income in the first six months of 2010, in seasonally adjusted terms, compared to 11.2 percent in the same period a year earlier — a sign less income was available for spending.
Some positives did emerge from the retail sales data.
On an annual basis, sales were up 0.4 percent in real terms. In nominal terms, sales fell 2.4 percent on the month but were up 1.6 percent on the year, yielding a 2.1 percent increase in the year through September.
The data were based on sales in seven states accounting for some 76 percent of total retail turnover.
(Additional reporting by Annika Breidthardt; Editing by John Stonestreet)
brian.rohan@reuters.com ; +49 30 2888 5223

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