Finantsturgude ootused Föderaalreservi istungi eel

Täna ja homme toimub järjekordne USA Föderaalreservi istung. Turuosalised ootavad Bloomberg News’i andmetel ligikaudu 500 miljardi dollari suuruse kvantitatiivse lõdvendamise (QE) paketi väljakuulutamist. Täiendava väärtpaberite kokkuostuprogrammi ellukutsumist Föderaalreservi poolt ennustavad Bloombergi poolt küsitletud 56-st ökonomistist 53. 

Policy makers meeting today and tomorrow will restart a program of securities purchases to spur growth, reduce unemployment and increase inflation, said 53 of 56 economists surveyed last week. Twenty-nine estimated the Fed will pledge to buy $500 billion or more, while another seven predicted $50 billion to $100 billion in monthly purchases without a specified total. The remainder said the Fed would buy up to $500 billion or didn’t quantify their forecast.
The varied responses reflect differences among Fed officials over the total amount of purchases needed to bolster the recovery. Policy makers, pursuing unprecedented stimulus, have cut the benchmark rate almost to zero and bought $1.7 trillion in securities without generating growth fast enough to bring down unemployment from near a 26-year high.

Eelmisel nädalal viis oma klientide hulgas sarnase küsitluse läbi ka Citigroup. Kui kolm nädalat tagasi oli Citi klientide ootus kokkuostuprogrammi mediaansuuruse osas 575 miljardit dollarit, siis viimase küsitluse kohaselt oodatakse programmi maht langevat vahemikku 250-500 miljardit dollarit

The poll was conducted by our Rate Sales team from Wednesday afternoon until Friday afternoon. There were 93 responses from a cross section of global accounts.
To summarize, when we first conducted this survey 3 weeks ago the median response was an expectation of $575BN of QE to be announced in November. This latest survey saw expectations decline to between $250‐ $500BN, which appears to be reflected in the move we have seen in the 10 year over the past 3 weeks. Additionally, nearly 50% of respondents are going into the FOMC meeting long duration with 95% expecting some announcement of QE on Wednesday. 46% think that yield targeting is somewhat likely and 53% expect that an explicit inflation target is somewhat likely.

 

 

Lisaks USA Föderaalreservi istungile on sellel nädalal toimumas ka Ühendkuningriikide Keskpanga ja Euroopa Keskpanga istungid. Erinevalt USA Föderaalreservist ei oota turuosalised Inglismaa ja Euroopa Keskpankade poolset väärtpaberite kokkuostuprogrammide suurendamist. Juhul kui tõesti nii läheb, lahknevad kolme riigi rahapoliitikad juba oluliselt. Alljärgnev graafik kajastab nimetatud riikide keskpankadepoolseid väärtpaberite kokkuostu suhtena riigi sisemajanduse koguprodukti.

Allikas: News N Economics

 

Rubriigid: Uudised, märksõnad: . Salvesta püsiviide oma järjehoidjasse.

 

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