Kui edukas on olnud Hiina valuutamanipulatsioon?

Rünnakud Hiina kui valuutamanipulaatori suunas on viimastel kuudel märgatavalt elavnenud. Selge on see, et Hiina kontrollib oma rahvusvaluuta liikumisi USA dollari suhtes, kuid vähe on olnud juttu ja arvutusi, kas ja kui palju jüaan siiski dollari suhtes tugevnenud on. Alljärgnev postitus toob välja arvutused nii nominaalkursi kui ka inflatsiooniga kohandatud kursimuutuste kohta. Just viimasena nimetatu paneb jüaani liikumised dollari suhtes uude perspektiivi, sest üldjuhul unustatakse antud teemat käsitledes inflatsioonimäärade erinevused USA ja Hiina vahel sootuks. Kokkuvõtlikult on alates käesoleva aasta 19. juunist jüaan tugevnenud dollari suhtes ligikaudu 2,5%, mis teeb aasta baasile viiduna ligikaudu 8% nominaalkallinemise. Arvestades aga inflatsioonimäärade erinevusi Hiinas ja USA-s on juään sama perioodi jooksul kallinenud ligikaudu 10% (aasta baasile viiduna). Kuigi on meelevaldne eeldada jüaani tugevnemise tempo sellist jätkumist näitavad lihtsad arvutused, et 2-3 aastaga on võimalik likvideerida praegune 20-40% alahinnatud kurss. Arvestades lisaks ka inflatsioonimäärade väljavaadet Hiina ja USA majandustele, siis ehk isegi kiiremini.

How Successful Is China’s Currency Manipulation?

The US Treasury has been reluctant to name China as a currency manipulator. It fears that official use of these words would be seen as the start of a trade war. In the plain-English sense, however, China certainly does manipulate its currency, doing so by frequent intervention in foreign exchange markets. Heated rhetoric aside, the real question is, how successful has the manipulation been in maintaining the competitiveness of Chinese exports?

To answer that question, we need to look not just at nominal exchange rates, but at real rates. In nominal terms, the yuan has strengthened about 2.5% since China’s June 19 decision to ease its currency policy. That works out to an annualized rate of nominal appreciation of almost 8%. The simplest way to calculate real appreciation is to add on the difference between China’s inflation rate (3.5%, according to August data) and US inflation (about 1%, or even less if the dip in the September figures holds up). Doing so gives us an annual rate of real appreciation of more than 10%. Two or three years of that would pretty well eliminate the 20 to 40% undervaluation that critics are talking about. True, three years is longer than the time horizon of your average politician, but it’s not exactly a glacial pace of change, either.
But wait, you might say, we can’t be sure that China will continue to allow an 8% rate of nominal appreciation. The latest hints from inside the PBoC suggest that 3% nominal appreciation could well be the maximum. Wouldn’t that mean it would take a lot longer to correct the existing undervaluation?

No, not necessarily. In order to slow the rate of nominal appreciation, the PBoC would have to step up its currency intervention. Chinese inflation is already accelerating month after month. Slowing nominal appreciation from its recent 8% pace would increase inflationary pressure even more, both by keeping import prices from falling, and via the newly minted yuan that intervention pumps into China’s domestic money supply. With inflation accelerating further, the rate of real appreciation might not slow by much, if at all.

The bottom line: Yes, China is a currency manipulator, but not a completely successful one. Condemning as trivial the 2.5% appreciation of the yuan since June sounds good in the halls of Congress, but that number far understates the rate at which the yuan is really losing its competitive edge against the dollar.

Flash footnote (published on Treasury web site shortly after the above post)

WASHINGTON – Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner recognized China’s actions since early September to accelerate the pace of currency appreciation, while noting it is important to sustain this course.

Since June 19, 2010, when China announced it would renew the reform of its exchange rate and allow the exchange rate to move higher in response to market forces, the Chinese currency has appreciated by roughly 3 percent [sic] against the U.S. dollar. Since September 2, 2010, the pace of appreciation has accelerated to a rate of more than 1 percent per month. If sustained over time, this would help correct what the IMF has concluded is a significantly undervalued currency. ”

Follow this link to download a free set of classroom-ready slides discussing China’s currency policy and the real exchange rate. An earlier version of this post appeared on SeekingAlpha.com



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