USA töötururaport

USA töötururaporti kohaselt loodi oktoobris 151 tuhat töökohta, mida oli seekord märgatavalt rohkem analüütikute poolt oodatud 60 tuhandest. Üldiselt peetakse USA majanduse tasakaaluolekus vajalikuks igakuiselt 100-125 tuhande töökoha loomist. Sellisel juhul püsib töötuse määr muutumatuna ehk uusi töökohti luuakse enam-vähem samas tempos nagu kasvab töövõimeline elanikkond. Föderaalreservi San Fransisco haru ökonomistid on leidnud, et toomaks USA töötuse määr 2012 aasta juuni kuuks 8% tasemele, on tarvis igakuiselt luua 225-300 tuhat töökohta (vaata alltoodud graafikut). Erinevused vajaminevate loodavate töökohtade arvus tulenevad erinevate USA agentuuride lahknevates hinnangutes käesoleva hetke töötuse määrale. Selles valguses ei paista viimase töötururaporti numbrid enam üldse nõnda positiivsed.

Alljärgnevalt on toodud valik majandusanalüütikute kommentaare viimasele töötururaportile (allikas: The Wall Street Journal Blogs):

The October jobs report suggests that labor market conditions are improving. We believe this reflects a transition from a productivity led recovery to a modest expansion that is sustained by job and income growth. –David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley

The October employment report, in the context of the current recovery, was terrific and included upward revisions to previous months of 110,000… The report is better than expected and a most welcome development, corroborating our general thesis: the recovery is ongoing while the data continue to suggest that worries about a double dip recession are overblown. –Dan Greenhaus, Miller Tabak

One upbeat employment report does not change the picture that this will be a slow and long-drawn-out recovery. And there were strong private employment gains back in March and April that didn’t continue. But today’s news does further reduce the likelihood of the dreaded “double dip”, and as that risk is seen to recede, businesses and households may become more confident to hire and spend.–Nigel Gault, IHS Global Insight

Even though October’s job growth is a step in the right direction, given the backlog of 14.8 million unemployed workers in this country, the pace of job growth is not strong enough to bring the unemployment rate down to pre-recession levels anytime soon. At October’s rate of job growth, the economy would achieve prerecession unemployment rates (5% in December 2007) in roughly twenty years. –Heidi Shierholz, EPI

Retailers have begun to hire for the holiday shopping season. With better mood, it is hoped that consumers would splurge during the season. Education and health continue to be the workhorse of the job market. Temporary help, a harbinger of more full-time jobs, rose 35,000. Also, average work week and average hourly earnings moved in the right direction. The index of aggregate hours worked, a good measure of economic growth, rose by 0.43 percentage point indicating that the economy is growing slowly. –Sung Won Sohn, Smith School of Business and Economics

This report plus the revisions to previous months suggest that services employment and overall labor market conditions have been stronger than original data had indicated. Private employment has now averaged gains of 112,000 during 2010. While the recovery in employment has been disappointing relative to the sharp decline in employment observed during the recession, the trends in the underlying data suggest that the unemployment rate should remain on its gradual downward trend. –Michael Gapen, Barclays Capital

We had not been expecting sustained private payrolls at this pace until next spring, and this could easily be a fluke. But for now it looks good. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics

The unemployment rate held steady Tat 9.6% despite a 330,000 decline in the volatile household jobs offset by a 254,000 decline in the labor force. For the first 10 months of 2010, private sector jobs rose by 1.1 million (110,000 per month) and household jobs rose by 1.27 million (127,000 per month) which is a very consistent picture of a moderate improvement in the labor market. To be sure, in a “full-speed” recovery, job gains would be double these numbers and the Unemployment rate would be dropping. –Stuart Hoffman, PNC

An increase in the number of long-term unemployed looks a tad suspicious since weekly data show a fairly impressive drop over the corresponding interval between survey weeks. This divergence highlights the sometimes conflicting signals that often complicate the interpretation of various high-frequency job data. –David Resler, Nomura Global Economics

 

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